Since 2014, it has been government policy that all pupils should leave school with least a grade 4 GCSE in both English and maths (or equivalent). Achieving this combination is often known as achieving the basics. Pupils who fall short of achieving the basics at age 16 are required to resit the relevant GCSE(s) or, in some cases, to take an alternative functional skills qualification.

And a lot of young people do not achieve the basics at age 16. Official figures for last year’s pupils aren’t out yet, but DfE data on the 2022/23 cohort shows that nearly 200,000 pupils in state-funded mainstream schools, a third of the cohort, did not receive a grade 4 or above in English and maths GCSE.

In this post, I’ll be using data submitted to us by schools using FFT’s Early Results Service to get ahead of the official figures and look at the pupils who did not achieve the basics last year.

Data

The data I’ll be analysing in this post was submitted to us by state-funded mainstream schools using our Early Results Service. It comes from around 1,500 schools and 290,000 pupils – roughly half the cohort.

Generally, we find that data collected from a large number of schools produces a close approximation of the national average but results for groups of pupils can sometimes be more variable. Do bear this in mind when interpreting the rest of the post.

Some basics about the basics

Before we get started, a word on the definition of ‘the basics’. In this piece, I’ll be using this to refer to achieving a grade 4 or above in GCSE maths, and in either GCSE English language or GCSE English literature. ‘Basics’ is also sometimes used to refer to achieving a grade 5 or above in the same subjects, but here I’ll be sticking to grade 4 or above.

Overall, 34% of pupils in our sample did not achieve the basics in 2023/24, almost the same as in the official figures for the 2022/23 cohort (33%). The chart below shows how this breaks down by gender and disadvantage status.

Boys were slightly more likely to fall short of the basics than girls, but the difference between disadvantaged pupils and their peers was far larger. More than half of disadvantaged pupils did not achieve the basics, compared to just over a quarter of their peers.

What grades did these pupils achieve?

Now we’re going to take a look at the grades of pupils who did not achieve the basics in more detail.

The majority of pupils were not far off achieving the basics. Close to half did achieve a grade 4 or above in either English or maths, and a further 11% achieved a grade 3 in both subjects.

But a substantial minority (38%) achieved less than a 3 in both subjects, and a further 5% were not entered for GCSEs in either subject.

When we break results down by gender, we can see that the majority of both male and female pupils either achieved a pass in one subject, or a 3 in both subjects. But male pupils were less likely to pass one subject then female students, and more likely to have achieved less than a grade 3 in both subjects.

The majority of non-disadvantaged pupils were not far off achieving the basics: 64% either passed one subject, or received grade 3 in both. But this compares to just 48% of disadvantaged pupils.

Disadvantaged pupils were more likely to have two grades below 3, and more likely to not be entered for either subject.

Pupils who passed one subject

Finally, let’s take a closer look at those pupils who achieved a grade 4 or above in one subject, but not the other.

These pupils were more likely to have passed English than maths, which is perhaps not surprising given that many pupils take GCSEs in both English language and English literature, but just one GCSE in maths.

But when we break the data down by gender, we can see that the difference is mainly driven by female pupils. Male pupils were split 50/50 between passing English and passing maths, but just 17% of female pupils got grade 4 or above in maths but not in English.

The majority of those who achieved a grade 4 or above in one subject received a grade 4.

Of those who passed maths, 7% achieved a grade 6 of above, compared to 15% of those who passed English. Female pupils were more likely than male pupils to have received a grade 6 or above in English, and slightly less likely in maths. And disadvantaged pupils were slightly less likely to have a grade 6 or above in either subject.

Summing up

Based on our analysis of this sample of pupils, the majority of those who did not achieve the basics last year were not far short, but a substantial minority had either very low grades in both subjects, or weren’t entered for either.

Disadvantaged pupils were far less likely to achieve the basics than their peers, and were likely to be further from the mark if they did not achieve them.

And the same applied to male pupils, although the difference between male and female pupils was smaller than that between disadvantaged pupils and their peers. But there were very marked gender differences by subject: female pupils were far more likely to achieve a grade 4 or above in English but not in maths than they were to achieve a grade 4 or above in maths but not English, while either situation was equally likely for male pupils.

The resits policy remains firmly in place for now, and recent changes are bringing in minimum teaching hours for those taking resits. Full-time students who did not achieve the basics will be expected to receive three hours of teaching in English and/or four hours in maths per week. And while this is only an expectation this academic year, it will become a requirement from 2025/26.

And with around 200,000 pupils per cohort not achieving the basics, that equates to a huge number of teaching hours.