GCSE results are now out.

After another challenging year for pupils and schools, what do they show?

Grades have gone up again (slightly)

Last year, centre assessed grades were used in place of public exams, and there was a spike in the percentage of entries awarded top grades.

This year, grades were awarded using a different process based on teacher assessed grades. But this is another exceptional year and the results do look very different to those from before the pandemic.

Among 16 year olds in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the percentage of entries graded 7 or above has increased from 27.7% in 2020 to 30.2%. In 2019 it was 21.9%. [1]

At grade 4/C or above, the percentage has increased from 69.9% in 2019 to 79.1% in 2021. Last year, it was 78.9%.

Some subjects have seen much larger grade increases than others

As at A-Level, the grade increase is not evenly spread between subjects.

In computing, for example, the percentage of pupils achieving a grade 4 or above increased by 2.3 percentage points from 80.1% to 82.3%. While in design and technology, there was a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from 79.3% to 77.1%.

But if we compare 2021 grades to pre-pandemic grades from 2019, we can see that grades in every subject have increased sharply.

The biggest difference is in computer science, in which the percentage achieving grade 4 or above has increased by 19.8 percentage points since 2019.

Subjects with the highest number of entries have seen smaller increases. English literature, maths and double award science have seen boosts of just 10.5, 6.8 and 9.2 percentage points since 2019.

Attainment at grade 4 or above fell in some subjects, such as art and design and design and technology, between 2020 and 2021.

Looking at the percentage awarded grade 7 or above gives a slightly different picture.

Unlike grade 4 or above, there are increases from last year in almost every subject. But the increases between 2019 and 2021 tend to be smaller than at grade 4.

The gender gap at grade 7 and above has widened

In 2019 there was a 6.7 percentage point difference in entries graded 7 and above between boys and girls. This increased to 9.2 percentage points in 2021.

Among 16 year olds in England, 26.4% of girls achieved grade 7 or above in maths compared to 25.5% of boys. The attainment of boys has tended to be higher than that of girls in the past.

More pupils are entering EBacc subjects but the 75% target for 2022 is still some way off

The government hopes to see 75% of pupils studying the EBacc by next year. But just 40% did so last year.

We won’t know what proportion entered all of the EBacc subjects in 2021 until the DfE release data on Key Stage 4 performance later this year. But we can get an indication by looking at the percentage of GCSE entries to individual EBacc subjects.

The EBacc consists of five components: English, maths, two sciences, a modern or ancient language and a humanity. This year in England, 37.4% of GCSE entries were to an EBacc subject, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last year.

Whether this means there will be an increase in the percentage of pupils completing the EBacc remains to be seen. It is at least partly explained by an increase in the numbers taking GCSEs rather than by pupils choosing EBacc subjects over non-EBacc subjects.

And the number of entries in languages – the component of the Ebacc that has historically proved most difficult to deliver – are slightly up among pupils in England, increasing from 251,149 in 2020 to 257,453. [2].

Some non-EBacc subjects have also had an increase in entries. Notably, art and music, both of which have seen a sharp fall in entries since the introduction of the EBacc, saw increases of 3.6% and 2.3%.

We should note that the increase in the overall number of GCSE entries is due to an increase in the size of the population of 16 year olds,  from 628,023 in 2020 to 637,756 in 2021, a 1.5% increase.

The disadvantage gap may have widened

We’ll find out more about the official disadvantage gap used by DfE when they publish their statistical first release in October or November. However, there are signs that it may have widened. Ofqual are reporting from their equalities analysis (also published this morning) that the attainment gap between pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) and their peers has grown by 10% of a grade. This may reflect the fact that disadvantaged pupils have missed more schools than their peers this year.

There has been a large rise in top grades in independent schools

Just like at A-level, independent schools have reported larger increases in attainment at the top grades. Ofqual has produced a breakdown of attainment in GCSE entries in England by centre type although this seems to cover pupils of all ages rather than just 16 year olds.

Between 2019 and 2021, the percentage of entries graded 7 or above at independent schools increased from 46% to 61%. If we leave aside Colleges (where most entries will be from those aged 17 and above), this percentage among state schools increased from 21% to 28%.

Though as one comment to this article below notes, there was also a large (10 percentage point) among secondary selective schools though the Ofqual data only paints half a picture since it only seems to include 85 out of 160+ grammar schools.

We still do not know a great deal about the external quality assurance undertaken by the exam boards. How many independent schools had their results scrutinised? Did this result in any lowering the grades they submitted?

Thank you

Finally, a thank you to teachers for significant additional workload they took on this year in designing assessments, marking them, documenting what they did and finally awarding grades.

We’ll post more analysis on today’s results throughout the day. Sign up to receive our blogposts by email to make sure you don’t miss any coverage.

And do visit our dedicated results day microsite for more on the trends in entries and results by subject.

 

Notes

  1. The figures we’re reporting are 16 year old figures for the UK. If you see slightly different figures used elsewhere that might be because others have used data for England only or for pupils of all ages.
  2. These figures do not include entries into ancient languages, which are reported along with other subjects under the umbrella term ‘classical subjects’.